reported strikes on oil supertankers in Hormuz on September 1, coinciding with a series of July–August attacks (OilPrice); tanker traffic in the Gulf of Oman over 24 hours fell from 655–676 to ~4,180 data points, and average tanker speed dropped from 20.2 to 17.8 knots—a sign of caution. Despite physical risk in the strait, Brent fell -0.65% over the hour to $93.84 and gained only +9.4% over 7 days—a contradiction indicating the market either already priced in a premium in July–August (when Brent climbed from $84 to $95.70), or expects de-escalation. Gold lost -6.5% over the week ($4,375 vs. peak $4,697), also suggesting reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Trump announced a blockade of Iranian shipping, transit fees through Hormuz, and U.S. Navy tanker escorts from July onward (NPR, Gulf News, Radio Free Europe, Detroit News), but no new statements during the analyzed period. Polymarket prediction market puts the probability of a return to normal in Hormuz by September 30 at just 2.65% (-77% over the week, -80% over the month)—traders are pricing in prolonged disruption. Conclusion: the physical signal (attacks, slower tankers) contradicts the price signal (Brent falling intraday, gold down over the week). Either the market views incidents as localized and manageable, or the premium was already extracted in July–August; the absence of new Trump statements over the period may indicate a pause in rhetoric